Glass still downside risk on the price

 Shortly suppress multiple negative factors, the glass on the price is still downside risk. From the midline point of view, the substantive urbanization glass demand will boost prices. Although yesterday's main 1309 contract prices rose more than 2%, but due to the early part of the negative factors still exist in the short term there is still the risk of callbacks.

February 19-March 19 the central bank in the open market repurchase operations expand Forward of 113 billion. After the Spring Festival in mid-March the central bank to reverse repurchase amount of money due 860000000000. Within a month the central bank in the recovery of mobility scale of 973 billion yuan, while in March only 45 billion positive repo. March tight money supply levels almost a foregone conclusion, lead glass of the price can not be sustained rebound in the short term there is still the risk of callbacks.
During the two sessions, from the level of bad monetary policy followed, March 13 Zhou Xiaochuan said it would take the credit policies of structural adjustment rates, while according to CPI and other factors regulate monetary policy. Since February CPI headed trends, market policy of the central bank is widely expected shortly tight. The central bank's short-term austerity policies will suppress the glass on the price in two ways: First, the stock market due to lack of financial support weak trend, while the glass futures market and the stock market are closely related, so pressure on the price of glass; two glass downstream estate industry influenced by the capital side, the central bank's credit policy will make the real estate market outlook for glass demand worries about the heat. Based on the central bank's tightening policy in March, there are still short-term pullback glass risks.
Psychological impact on real estate market
In early March the property market "new national five" and rules promulgated, some local governments timely follow-up regulation, Changsha, Wuhan, Shenzhen have introduced the New Deal regulation of the property market. Real Estate Deal of the waves against the glass of the price support level at each firm that is not forced to seek new support dropping. It is noteworthy that the two organizations has ended, the 17th Prime Minister did not answer reporters' questions, but also emphasized that real estate control issues, policies face persistent pressure weakened. I believe that the New Deal real estate may not be materially blow glass demand level, in my recent research situation, several listed property companies said, "This year's program will not push plate affected by the real estate regulation, policies need to observe the surface there are many the place and we are all nearly 10 years spent in the regulation. companies still operate as a stable center of gravity. "in the market gradually absorb bad news, or will focus the attention to the urbanization construction. 2013 affordable housing plan basically built 4.6 million units, new construction of six million units, from a demand perspective, the glass midline bullish.
Stock market optimism setbacks
After the Spring Festival glass stock market optimism continues to heat up, just two weeks hike 5mm glass companies across the country closing grade glass 20-80 yuan / ton range. But the rise in bullish sentiment was more forcibly pulled up by the manufacturer due to the lack of actual demand for support. From the supply side, a number of production lines have been built ignition operation. In mid-February to March has five production lines. This situation especially in the northern market is staggering. While production continued to increase, inventory pressures; downstream demand has not followed up on the other hand, poor business out of the library, stockpile emotions subsided, the recent stock market optimism glass began to ebb, North China, East China and South China markets were down glass spot prices. In the same time period is two sluggish market circumstances, the price rebound in the short term there is still pressure on the glass.
The foregoing analysis, short term suppression of multiple negative factors, the glass on the price is still downside risk. From the midline point of view, the substantive urbanization glass demand will boost prices.